Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (<i>H</i><sub>s</sub>). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of <i>H</i><sub>s</sub> and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions

Reducing the uncertainty in projections of future ice shelf basal melting

Simulations of ice-shelf basal melting in future climate scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have revealed a large uncertainty and the potential of a rapidly increasing basal mass loss particularly for the large cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas. The large spread in model results was traced back to uncertainties in the freshwater budget on the continental shelf, which is governed by sea-ice formation. Differences in sea-ice formation, in turn, were shown to follow the regional differences between the atmospheric heat fluxes imprinted by the climate models. A more recent suite of FESOM model experiments was performed with output from two members of the newer generation of climate models engaged in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Comparing simulations forced with output from the AR5/CMIP5 models HadGem2 and MPI-ESM, we find that projected heat fluxes and thus sea-ice formation over the Southern Ocean continental shelves have converged to an ensemble with a much smaller spread than between the AR4 experiments. For most of the modeled ice shelves, a gradual but accelerating increase of basal melt rates during the 21st century is a robust feature. Both with HadGem2 and with MPI-ESM forcing, basal melt rates for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in FESOM increase by a factor of two by the end of the 21st century in the RCP85 scenario. For the smaller, warm-water ice shelves, inter-model differences in ice-shelf basal mass loss projections are still slightly larger than differences between the scenarios RCP45 and RCP85; compared with AR4 projections, however, the model-dependent spread has been strongly reduced. Current work aims at further reducing the uncertainties arising from atmospheric forcing by using output from the regional climate model RACMO. The effect of a varying cavity geometry and the response of the grounded ice are being adressed by coupling to the RIMBay ice shelf / ice sheet model

В. Б. Антонович у листах, спогадах та працях Д. І. Багалія

The previous interglacial (Eemian, 130–114 kyr BP) had a mean sea level highstand 4 to 7 m above the current level, and, according to climate proxies, a 2 to 6 K warmer Arctic summer climate. Greenland ice cores extending back into the Eemian show a reduced depletion in δ18O of about 3‰ for this period, which suggests a significant warming of several degrees over the Greenland ice sheet. Since the depletion in δ18O depends, among other factors, on the condensation temperature of the precipitation, we analyze climatological processes other than mean temperature changes that influence condensation temperature, using output of the regional climate model RACMO2. This model is driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHO-G GCM boundaries for present-day, preindustrial and Eemian climate. The processes that affect the condensation temperature of the precipitation are analyzed using 6-hourly model output. Our results show that changes in precipitation seasonality can cause significant changes of up to 2 K in the condensation temperature that are unrelated to changes in mean temperature

The burden of parenting children with frontal lobe epilepsy

Objective: Caring for a child with a chronic illness adds stress to the typical parenting stress in healthy developing children. This stress can place a heavy burden on parents and may increase when a child displays problem behavior. In general, parenting and child's behavior problems are associated. Furthermore, externalizing (more outgoing) behavior is reported frequently in children with frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE). Therefore, in this study, we first investigated the burden of parents of children with FLE, and second, we investigated the relation between the experienced burden and reported behavioral problems. The validity of parents' reports on proxy measures as well as duration of epilepsy is taken into account. Methods: Thirty-one parents of children with FLE completed validated questionnaires about behavioral problems and burden of parenting. To examine if parents tend to be inconsistent or unusually negative, we used the two validity scales of the Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF) (Negativity and Inconsistency). Results: Only parents of children with FLE who have had epilepsy for 5 years or longer report more problems on the Nijmeegse Vragenlijst voor de Opvoedingssituatie (NVOS) subscales 'Able to manage', 'Child is a burden', and 'Good Interaction' compared with the healthy controls. The subscale 'Child is a burden' significantly predicts scores in about 20% to 49% on the main scales of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), the Global Executive Composite (GEC), and Behavioral Regulation Index (BRI) of the BRIEF. Only 6% of parents scored in the dinical range of the negativity scale of the BRIEF. For the inconsistency scale, this was 45%. Conclusion: Parents of children with FLE do not report excessive parental burden. Longer duration of epilepsy might be a risk factor in experiencing burden. The findings suggest a link between parental burden and behavioral problems in children with FLE. Externalizing behavioral problems are the most marked behavioral problems, which relate to the parental burden. Parents tend to be inconsistent in their ratings. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Antibiotic use in children and the use of medicines by parents

Objective Antibiotic drugs are frequently used for viral infections in children. It is probable that health beliefs and parental concern have great influence on the use of drugs in children. This study, performed in The Netherlands, investigates whether the use of antibiotics in children is associated with the use of medicines by parents. Patients and methods In this observational cohort study, the authors selected 6731 children from the prescription database IADB.nl who did not receive antibiotics until their fifth birthday and 1479 children who received at least one antibiotic prescription every year. The authors then selected parents for each group of children (5790 mothers and 4250 fathers for the children who did not receive antibiotics and 1234 mothers and 1032 fathers for the children who regularly received antibiotics). The authors compared the use of antibiotics and other medicines between the two groups of parents. Results Parents of children who received antibiotics recurrently were found to use more antibiotics themselves compared with parents of children who did not receive antibiotics. Moreover, this group also showed a higher percentage of chronic medication use: (11.3 vs 6.2% (mothers) and 13.1% vs 9.5% (fathers)). Mothers more often use antacids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), analgesics, anxiolytics, hypnotics, antidepressants, drugs for treatment of asthma and antihistamines. Fathers use more antacids, cardiovascular drugs, NSAIDs and asthma drugs. Conclusions The parents of children who receive antibiotic drugs regularly use more medicines compared with the parents of children who use no antibiotic drugs. Parents' medicine use may influence that of children and is a factor physicians and pharmacists should take into account

Use of antibiotics in rural and urban regions in the Netherlands:an observational drug utilization study

Background: Large livestock farms might increase the infection risk for the nearby human population because of an increased risk for disease outbreaks and because antibiotic-resistant bacteria are more likely to be present. We hypothesized that populations residing in rural areas have more contact with cattle compared with populations in urban areas, and will use more antibiotics or more frequently require a new course of antibiotics. Methods: Using data from the prescription database IADB.nl, we compared antibiotic use by patients living in rural areas to the use by patients living in urban areas. We also followed cohorts of antibiotic users and determined the patients who required a second antibiotic within 14 days after beginning the first antibiotic. Results: The yearly prevalence of antibiotic use was greater in rural areas compared with urban areas (2009: 23.6% versus 20.2% (p <0.001), especially in the younger age groups. More adult patients residing in rural areas required a second course of antibiotic treatment within 14 days after starting the first treatment. Conclusion: Individuals use more antibiotics, and adults more frequently require a second antibiotic prescription within 14 days, in rural areas compared with urban areas. Although the differences were small and the risks for the general rural population were not high, this difference should be investigated further